UFC 140 Picks and Breakdowns

photo via SBNation

Lyoto Machida is a puzzle. Although not undefeated, The Dragon’s game is as dangerous as ever. He has increased the intensity and widened the variety of his training for this fight with Jones, and looks to be the most prepared he has ever been. There is just one problem. When fighting Jon Jones there is such a small window of opportunity to capitalize on his weak spots and implement any type of strategy. Jones has an unprecedented finish rate as his last decision (win) was against Stephan Bonnar in 2009, and with good reason. The kid relentlessly evolves, and the ingredient of his coach Greg Jackson continues to make Jones that much more developed and unpredictable. Although Machida stylistically is the biggest threat to Jones’ throne at this point in time, the champion gives his opponents such a miniscule chance to execute any part of their game plan. He constantly keeps the fight within his control with his reaching strikes, dominating takedown defense, and wildly unpredictable elbows. This forces fighters to go on the defense and veer away from tactics that hold the highest prospect of victory. Machida will try to counter Bones, as he always does, and may land a few good shots, but Jones is too much of a dominating presence for Machida to handle. The real damage will come from the champion, in a second successful title defense.

Pick: Jones via Submission Round 3

Rematches are a great way to gauge the strength of a fighter’s mentality. Seeing if Frank Mir will be as hungry to finish Noguiera as he was the first time around will be telling of where exactly Mir is in his decorated career. Rodrigo looked solid, and resilient in his last win over Brendan Schaub in Brazil. He took a number of big shots, and stayed on his feet to keep throwing, in turn earning a knockout. This was impressive, but Frank Mir is more of a rounded and experienced fighter than the young TUF alum. Mir has a ground game that must never be slept on, and even though Noguiera has great takedown defense, Mir can bring the clinch game into effect to get the canvas warfare started. Either way, Mir has an edge over the Pride Legend in almost every aspect of this matchup. Mir will win the stand up, and end up earning a stoppage victory on the ground.

Pick: Mir via TKO Round 3

Tito Ortiz hung in the fight with Rashad Evans at UFC 133 longer than many people expected him to before he was defeated. Now the positive “People’s Champion” version of Ortiz looks to get back into the win column, and doesn’t necessarily have his hands full. Lil Nog has been a gatekeeper for the UFC for quite some time now, but given that Ortiz has a more developed striking game than Phil Davis who struggled when trading with Nogueira, Tito should be able to win this fight. If not by stoppage, Tito will get the better of the strikes, and beat Noguiera into a possible retirement loss.

Pick: Ortiz via Unanimous Decision

Brian Ebersole will face Claude Patrick (an injury replacement for Rory MacDonald). Ebersole has continued to impress fans in his young UFC stint. His jiu jitsu is a serious threat, and this does not only refer to his ability to submit opponents. His ground game is tight, and has relentless submission defense (refer to Dennis Hallman fight). He is also an exhausting fighter to finish on the feet, with his granite chin, and enduring will. In his fight with highly ranked Hector Lombard, Ebersole cut the Brazilian wide open with a short elbow, then proceeded to take a wicked beating from one of the sport’s fiercest strikers, finally going down in the fourth. Ebersole outclasses Patrick in every aspect of this fight, and he has the definite edge.

Pick: Ebersole via TKO Round 2

The way that Mark Hominick exposed a fighter who many were claiming to be the next best thing, validated this Canadian’s heart and will. He fought Jose Aldo, and left it all inside the octagon, overwhelmingly winning the fifth round and nearly the belt. The machine has slick standup, and has a quick shot to go with it. Hominick also is an exceptional practitioner of ground and pound, and given that Jung is best with off his back, The Korean Zombie will have too much to overcome in order to win this fight.

Pick: Hominick via Unanimous Decision