B.J. Penn has fought the best in both UFC’s welterweight and lightweight division and has used his elite boxing to win many fights. This Hawaiian has crazy dexterity and a dangerous ground game backing up his world class striking. He faces off with Nick Diaz at UFC 137 in a welterweight showdown. Diaz is returning to the UFC for the first time since 2006 and must execute certain tactics for his best prospect of victory over B.J. Penn. These are Nick Diaz’s keys to victory.
In Penn’s two losses to the current champion Frankie Edgar, he was completely out-struck. Edgar was able to pick Penn apart with quickness and relentless attacks. Although Diaz doesn’t have this speed factor that Edgar possessed, he does have accurate and deceptively powerful hands. Diaz will never be able to replicate Edgar’s striking but that doesn’t mean he won’t beat Penn. Diaz strikes from unusual angles and doesn’t stop throwing until he is put away. Diaz doesn’t have quickness and devastating power, but his relentless striking wears on fighters and will be vital to breaking the Prodigies’ will. B.J. Penn became noticeably slower as Edgar continued his level-changing onslaught in both of their title bouts. Diaz needs to employ this strategy and work body shots into his repertoire. By stalking and keeping Penn at bay, Diaz must attack with counter strikes both to the head and body. Keep in mind that Frankie Edgar’s body shots against Penn slowed him down at 155 pounds. At welterweight Penn will be slower, and this effect will be magnified.
Although Nick Diaz has not faced the competition that Penn has since Diaz’s past octagon career, this won’t be much of a factor in my estimation. First of all, Diaz has proved his utter dominance in the Strikeforce 170 pound division and although Strikeforce’s talent is not on the level of that of the UFC’s, they are not far apart. Second, both guys always come to fight no matter who is standing in the other corner and once the door closes it’s just the two fighters, no records or past wins matter any longer. Both Penn and Diaz are high intensity athletes and will bring plenty of energy into this fight. Diaz is a vigorous striker who pushes his opponents’ pace to control the distance to take fighters out of their comfort zone. He is also effective when he throws counter shots at forward moving opponents. His knockout over Robbie Lawler was a perfect example of Diaz’s ability to stand and trade with a powerful striker. Lawler was able to land on Diaz a number of times, but it was Diaz that was getting the better of the exchanges and ended up planting Lawler face down on the mat with a back-stepping lead hook. Diaz also will not be out of a fight until he is forcefully put away. His last fight against Paul Daley showed just the kind of heart and undying will that has brought the Strikeforce champion such success.
Penn is going to work to finish this fight, as he infamously hates giving judges a say. However, Diaz has fast recovery power and is tough to finish. Nick can get into an opponent’s head rent-free and disrupt their fighting rhythm. If this was a five-round fight, the edge to Diaz would be greater. Just ask Cesar Gracie. A five round fight would be ideal for Diaz as he would be able to weather a number of takedowns until Penn gets tired and leaves himself open to a brawl.
Nick Diaz’s stiff jab is one of his deadliest weapons and will be yet another critical tool for Diaz to employ against Penn. Diaz has a reach advantage on Penn and must establish his swift jab to keep Penn uncomfortable. When a fighter gets tagged with an abrupt shot, they are immediately thrown off of their game and become mentally preoccupied. Diaz times his jab very well in setting up strong combinations and landing his jab on Penn will set up more opportunities for Diaz to capitalize on while also keeping Penn confined. Getting into a stand up war with B.J. Penn is a gamble, but it is where Diaz’s best shot at victory lies. Staying in Penn’s face will allow Diaz to dictate the pace, and counter takedown attempts with quick shots possibly catching B.J. and discouraging future takedown tries.
B.J. Penn is a surprising fighter and often has unexpected game plans. He started his rematch with Jens Pulver bringing Pulver to the mat, which is where he finished the fight with a second round submission. At UFC 127 he completely shocked Jon Fitch when he turned the tables and took the wrestler down. Penn is no slouch on the ground owning a black belt under Andre Pederneiras and is capable of effectively ground and pounding his way to a submission or TKO victory. Although Diaz has an active guard, he must stalk Penn and force the fight to stay standing. If Penn is able to get Diaz down, Diaz must be quick in getting back to his feet. He is one of the most athletic fighters in the sport and must use this athleticism to scramble and get back to striking. Respecting Penn’s ability to damage downed fighters will be important to Diaz’s chance at staying toe to toe.
In certain fights in Diaz’s career, he has been able to push an intolerable pace for opponents and quickly finish fights. In his DREAM 14 bout with Hayato Sakarai, Diaz took Sakarai down and overwhelmed him with non-stop strikes until the weary Sakurai left his arm susceptible to a Diaz submission. Nick Diaz hasn’t faced a fighter with the wrestling of B.J. Penn and will need to find a way to combat the takedowns. Diaz has never been great at takedown defense, and B.J. will most likely look for the takedown. Keeping pressure in Penn’s face is going to be a key to Diaz hindering Penn’s takedown game. Making fighters mentally uneasy in a fight is the one thing that Diaz does much better than Penn. If Diaz can keep Penn threatened with his aggressive movement and strikes this will slowly disrupt Penn’s rhythm and provide more openings for Diaz to land big shots.
In the first round, Diaz will be forced to weather a few early takedowns and work hard to get the fight back up. While on top, Penn will be aggressive yet careful of getting lured into one of Diaz’s sneaky submissions from guard. If Diaz even able to get to his feet after being brought down, he will try to get his striking rhythm started will lose the round to Penn’s takedowns.
The second round will consist of Penn coming out looking for a takedown through the clinch or slipping punches, but Diaz is going to push the tempo getting into stalk mode and let his hands go. Diaz will land a number of times and maybe even rock Penn with a combination, but won’t finish. Penn will secure a late takedown but Diaz will have already won this round by landing more shots.
In the final round, Penn will not be nearly as fresh as Diaz and his wrestling won’t be as forceful as it was early in the fight. Penn may get one takedown in this round if he is lucky, but Diaz being the fresher fighter, will get back up and go back to work with his bombardment of punches. Diaz won’t rock or really hurt Penn this round but will bloody him up, and inflict the most damage. Diaz will win the split decision 29-28 taking the last two rounds.
Some of Penn’s best success has come from his uncanny ability bring fighters into striking chess match, and outlasting his opponents on the feet. Facing Nick Diaz will bring an interesting task for the former Lightweight Champion to handle. Diaz’s belligerent style with underlying lethal precision has what it takes to beat the former UFC champion. If Diaz can storm through Penn’s poise and keep the fight on his wild terms, he will be able to neutralize the strengths of the Prodigy and have his hand raised after fifteen “fight-of-the-night exciting” minutes.
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