Jones vs. Rampage:
Jon Jones is a tricky striker, and a difficult one to prepare for. He throws from obscure angles and has serious reach that he employs to it's full potential. In addition, Jones is a wrestler who has takedown power, and has great elbows mixed in nicely with his ground and pound. Rampage is a standup fighter, who also has a wrestling background. He isn't easily taken down with his strong base and low center of gravity. Jones has some wild jumping strikes, and spinning elbows that all have a possibility of throwing the champion off balance. This will only be a factor if Rampage can successfully evade Jones' strikes enough to capitalize on taking down a one footed or off-balance Jones. If Rampage can get the fight to the ground, work on and control Jones from the top, he will be able to wear the champion down. His ground and pound isn't as fierce as the champion's, but Rampage is very strong and not easily manipulated, and if he can slowly break Jones' will, Rampage will be able to extend the fight enough to hurt Jones in the later rounds.
Many people are counting a four or five round fight out, and think that Jones will end it quick, and while Jones is very capable of doing so, Rampage is just as adept to extending the fight. Rampage is difficult to finish, and as he has matured the Pride champion has been stopped less and less. I think the fact that it took three rounds (three rounds of domination nonetheless) for Bones to stop Shogun shows that Rampage should be able to extend the fight to its full five round length. Rampage can avoid more punishment than the brawling striker Shogun, and also has the toughness to take more damage. The Wolfslair veteran has fought very long fights in his career (both in Pride and the UFC) that have helped him develop mental conditioning and toughness. Rampage is not going to be as easy to stop as Jones thinks, and unless the veteran is careless in taking punishment; he should be able to outlast the champion. The later the fight goes, the better chance the challenger has.
Another possible factor will be how well Jones uses the Muay Thai clinch. If Bones can land knees from the clinch, without taking inside hits from Page he will be have his best prospect of a knockout victory (refer to the two Wanderlei Silva knee-induced knockouts from Pride). What Jones needs to be careful with in the clinch is the close range, and inside power punches from Rampage.
Rampage will succeed in taking the 24 year-old into the deep waters of the later rounds using his takedowns, and counter striking. The weathered challenger will not only bring the fight to unfamiliar grounds for the young title holder, but will test him like he has never been before both physically and mentally. Rampage will lose the first few rounds to the striking points of Jones, but will weather a storm to make his moves in the third, fourth and fifth round to win the decision.
My pick: Rampage via split decision 48-47 Rampage, 48-47 Rampage, 49-46 Jones
Hughes vs. Koscheck:
In Matt Hughes’ last fight, it seemed as though the veteran’s stand up game had gone with his age, and that his career was coming to an end. Given that Hughes is such a competitor, and still one of the best wrestlers in the sport he will be able to handle the offense of Koscheck, and in fact will dominate the ground game. Hughes will push Koscheck against the cage, and find the takedown after wearing on the young wrestler. He has better ground attacks, and takedowns than the AKA welterweight. The former champion is great at putting a hurting on fighters once he gets them down, and he will work to soften up Koscheck in this fashion. Matt Hughes will be the better wrestler and once he has worked on Koscheck after putting him on his back, the hall of famer will have a Tito-like surprise stoppage resurgence victory.
My pick: Hughes via submission round 2
Browne vs. Broughton:
Travis Brown has been on a tear in his last few fights, and with his Knockout of the Night over Stephan Struve, his striking speed was put on display for all to see. Browne is smaller than “The Bear”, but with the smaller figure comes better agility, and quicker movements. Browne will be able to fend off the size, and takedowns of Rob Broughton. He will be able to overwhelm Broughton with strikes and win the decision.
My pick: Browne via unanimous decision
Diaz vs. Gomi:
In Takanori Gomi’s last fight, the wrestler, Clay Guida, was able to take him down, and neutralize Gomi's attack. Nate Diaz will have no intentions of getting the fight to the mat, but if it should get there, his submissions will keep him at an advantage. Diaz’s striking is superior to Gomi’s and he has the reach advantage over the Japanese superstar. Diaz will win the stand up battle, for the first half of the first round when he will catch Gomi, sending him down to be finished by Diaz.
My pick: Diaz via TKO round 1
Rothwell vs. Hunt:
Mark Hunt still has dangerous hands that can do real damage. The Samoan veteran is coming off a TKO victory over Chris Tuscherer. He has an overhand right that will knock fighters out instantly. With that said, Rothwell along with anyone who has seen Hunt fight before knows he has no chance at winning on the ground. He hopes to win by knockout every time, and Rothwell will smartly take down the Super Samoan. Rothwell will put Hunt into positions where he can maintain full control for the whole fight.
My pick: Rothwell via unanimous decision.
Ferguson vs. Riley:
Tony Ferguson has some advanced striking for such a young fighter. He will be able to hold his own on his feet, and won’t be taken down easily. He will do significant damage to Riley with strikes, but won’t be able to finish the UFC veteran. The Ultimate Fighter winner will also use his takedowns to set up more strikes from the top. Ferguson will bang it out against Riley and come out winning the fight.
My pick: Ferguson via unanimous decision.
Boetsch vs Ring:
Both Ring, and Boetsch have great wrestling, and are strong fighters. Tim Boetsch will have a size advantage in this fight that will make the Ultimate Fighter winner want to keep the fight standing. The wrestling of both these fighters will cancel each other out and keep it a striking battle. Nick Ring has some good striking, and although he isn’t a power puncher, he will be able to pick apart the new 185er. He will come close or possibly win knockout of the night with a stoppage in the last round.
My pick: Ring via KO round 3.
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